INDEPENDENT SPORTS MARKET RESEARCHGO DEEPER. SEE DIFFERENTLY.

See through
the noise.

Behind every price is a story.
We open the data. Question the market.
And show you what actually holds up.

An abstract field. The evidence is below.

NO PICKS. NO HYPE. JUST WHAT THE DATA SAYS.SCROLL TO EXPLORE

01 / THE SIGNALPUBLICATION 001 · 2021—2025

The price was right.
The return wasn’t.

The MLB moneyline was almost perfectly calibrated. Every price bucket still lost money. Explore the gap between being right and getting paid.

THE MARKET, UNDER A MICROSCOPE001 / MLB

Market expected Actually wonScale 0–100%

PROBABILITY BAND 0550-55%4,142 event-selections

MARKET EXPECTED52.48%

ACTUALLY WON52.53%

Select a band to inspect the published values. Historical results, not a forecast. Full methods and uncertainty in the research note.

02 / CHOOSE YOUR DEPTHFOLLOW YOUR CURIOSITY

Don’t take our word.
Pull the thread.

01 / READ

The research

Big questions. Published methods. The results that worked, and the ones that didn’t.

Explore the findings 02 / INTERROGATE

Your own questions

Ask about MLB, NFL, college football, or college basketball. Every answer includes its scope and evidence.

Ask First Win 03 / VERIFY

Nothing concealed

Review the tables. Check the specification. Every published figure leaves a trail inside First Win.

Go to the source

03 / FIRST WIN PROFOR THE ONES WHO KEEP ASKING

The answer is
a starting point.

The research is open. Pro goes further into what a result rules out, where it breaks down, and the next question worth asking.

Billing is handled by Stripe. No picks, no tips, and no claim that any of this will make you money betting.

Inside Pro

PUBLIC RESEARCH STAYS FREE. COMPLETE. CHECKABLE.

04 / NO BLACK BOX

Question everything.
Including us.

Method before result.

Specifications are frozen before the numbers run. No moving the goalposts after seeing the score.

Uncertainty, in the open.

Chance is part of the story. Every study reports the limits of what the evidence can say.

A trail you can follow.

Published data. Versioned methods. Corrections with the original kept on record.

Build something with the data

Institutional / Data Access

The corpus and research engine behind this site can support work beyond the published notes:

Research and data licensing
Historical sports market datasets
Programmatic API and data access
Custom research on a specific market question
Institutional access for desks and research teams

Enquire about institutional access

The price was right.The return wasn’t.

Don’t take our word.Pull the thread.