First Win / Interactive research
The Betting Market Report Card
Make your prediction, reveal five seasons of measured outcomes, and share the evidence. Nine questions. Three sports. No pooled headline.
01 / Choose a question
Which market do you want to test?
02 / Predict before the reveal
What did backing NFL spread favorites return?
Across 2021–2025, at the observed prices around ten minutes before the scheduled start.
How to read it
Probability accuracy and return answer different questions.
Calibration compares the market’s no-vig probability with outcomes. Return measures what happened after paying the offered price. A market can estimate outcomes well while every simple strategy loses money.
Each sport remains separate because coverage, schedules, and uncertainty differ. Every result links to its frozen study and complete limitations.
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