Keep the conversation
Saved chats and more room to investigate.
First Win Pro
Go further
with your ideas.
Research, build, and monitor—all in one workspace.
Checking membership options…
- Free
- Ask questions. Read the research.
- Pro
- Build strategies. Track what happens.
Make an idea testable
Create strategies in chat. Review every change.
Follow the results
Monitor supported signals and record your own picks.
Explore the research membership
Who it is for
- Model builders who need a calibrated benchmark and a concrete bar to clear before an edge is worth believing.
- Serious market participants who want to know which intuitive strategies are already ruled out before spending time on them.
- Analysts and researchers who want the underlying tables and the reproducibility trail, not just the write-up.
How the research reaches you
- Pro Brief
- A short, interpretation-first read on each major study. What matters, what the result rules out, where the interesting uncertainty sits, what we would investigate next, and how the result can legitimately be used. Claims are marked as supported or as open questions, and the two are never blurred.
- Technical Research Pack
- The evidence layer beneath the Brief. Complete supporting tables with every column, robustness and sensitivity work, season and cohort breakdowns, reproducibility metadata, and an explicit account of what the study does not establish. You start with the Brief; the Pack is there when you want to check it.
- On-platform research workspace
- Supporting tables, saved evidence, and deeper study views stay connected to their methodology and source inside First Win.
- Pro Notes
- Smaller quantitative investigations into focused questions that do not warrant a full public study, written in the same interpretation-first style. Produced when there is something worth answering, not to fill a schedule.
- Research queue
- Periodically we put a short list of candidate questions to members and ask which to investigate. Input into the agenda, not bespoke research on request, and never a request line for selections.
- Early access
- Completed studies reach members before they are published publicly.
What Publication 001 looks like in Pro
The public study The MLB moneyline is almost perfectly calibrated. Every bucket still lost money. is free and complete. Pro members additionally receive:
- A Pro Brief covering what the result establishes as a benchmark, which research directions it closes off, where the measured cost of trading varies, and the open questions it opens up.
- The Technical Research Pack, an on-platform view with the complete probability-band and price-bucket tables, both season breakdowns, and the decomposition behind the interval methodology.
- Five interactive supporting tables covering bands, buckets, both season breakdowns and the interval decomposition inside First Win.
None of that changes the public finding, and none of it is missing from the public article. The article tells you what we found and why it holds. Pro tells you what to do with it as a researcher.
Your research workspace
First Win Pro is available today as a research membership, including a persistent workspace around Ask First Win.
- A larger Ask First Win allowance and longer questions
- Comparison workflows across sports, cohorts, seasons and markets
- Automatically saved research with retained follow-up context
- Shareable on-platform receipts and scheduled dataset monitoring
- Advanced statistical views over the same canonical research layer
- In-platform alerts when monitored datasets change
Compare Free and Pro
Free and Pro
Public studies are free. Pro adds more Ask First Win questions and deeper research.
| Free | Pro | |
|---|---|---|
| Major public research studies | included | included |
| Main findings, full conclusion and core charts | included | included |
| Ask First Win research assistant | included | included |
| Create and refine strategies in chat | not included | included |
| Follow strategies and supported matching signals | not included | included |
| Record personal picks with your own odds and stake | not included | included |
| Cross-sport comparisons | not included | included |
| Context-retaining follow-up questions | not included | included |
| Shareable on-platform research receipts | not included | included |
| Scheduled dataset monitoring | not included | included |
| Public methodology and frozen specs | included | included |
| Research newsletter | included | included |
| Pro Brief: implications, and what to investigate next | not included | included |
| Technical Research Pack behind each major study | not included | included |
| Complete supporting tables and additional cuts | not included | included |
| Robustness and sensitivity work | not included | included |
| Pro-only research notes | not included | included |
| On-platform research workspace and saved evidence | not included | included |
| Early access to completed research | not included | included |
| Research queue participation | not included | included |
Monitoring depends on supported criteria and feed availability. Research and paper results do not establish future returns.